Quote Originally Posted by Anbesol
Well 10 years is a long time. I understand your reasoning, and its pretty sound, I just disagree. I could be wrong, but the last thing I think we can do is to be positively certain about a market 10 years from now.
You are wrong. As long as these sensors are Semiconductors, they will follow the immutable economic trends that Semiconductors have followed for the entire 40 year history of the technology. In fact, the things that keep making MOST semiconductors cheaper over time, are actually working to make DSLR sensors MORE expensive over time - see below:

Quote Originally Posted by Anbesol
10 years ago floppy disks were still being used, but their size was a little less than favorable. Zip disks became moderately popular for a brief period but the cost of the disks were pretty high, yet at that time they were still much much cheaper than flash memory. 10 years ago many had predicted (including the people of Iomega) that Zip disks would become some sort of standard medium. Today, flash memory costs 1/1000th the price of zip disks, 10 years ago they cost 3 times more.
And that was all predictable, and predicted by those same economic trends I have referred to. The folks who made memory chips knew damn well when their technology would become viable for mass storage. The fact that the likes of Iomega did not understand this is immaterial - they were not chip makers. Chipmakers knew and know when they would be displacing each type of non-semiconductor storage media, as Moore's Law marches inexorably on. But again, remember - Moore's law does NOT apply to sensors - so the cost arguments of MOST semiconductor technology does NOT drive sensors that must comport to a fixed format size. In fact, it works COUNTER to it, because as the REST of the chip market keeps going to smaller and smaller chips, the processes that are needed to make sensors get more and more exotic and specialized over time, and economies of scale work AGAINST SLR sensors when they can't be made on commodity process fabs.