Nikon D90 or Pentax k20d or Cannon 50d

[Anbesol]

Micro processor technology keeps getting smaller, and smaller, and smaller. Of course full frame cameras will, in the future, be built at much lower prices, and much lower sizes. The large requirement being only the pentaprism really, all other pieces of technology can be reduced in size. I dont expect full frame to be the future in 5 years, but in the next decades, I am willing to bet that full frame technology will outdate APS sensors.

In 2010, $3K will buy a lot more quality in APS size camera + lenses than it will in Full Frame

Yes, 2010 is 1 year. A change that big couldn't possibly transition that quick, even if instantly recognizable. I was saying 'the future' in the grander sense of things. Keeping in mind that lens are built to last decades.

Yes there is plenty of quality in APS but I think in 10 years full frame technology will be so comparably priced that the cost-benefit of manufacturing APS sensors will be obsolete.

Point remains though, the significantly improved sweet spot makes full frame lens the way to go, I still don't ever think that buying APS-lens is a good idea unless starting at 10-20mm.

[Dougjgreen]

Yes there is plenty of quality in APS but I think in 10 years full frame technology will be so comparably priced that the cost-benefit of manufacturing APS sensors will be obsolete.

That's simply not true - It's never going to happen. The cost of a full frame sensor alone DWARFS the other electronics in a DSLR - and full frame sensors are very process limited. Unlike everything else in a DSLR, the sensors can't really come down in cost (although they CAN move up the performance/feature curve without going UP in cost). The fact is, excluding the sensor, the cost of parts for a D700 is, at most $50 more than that on a D300. The difference between an 5D Mk II and and a 50D is similar.

So, other than the sensor itself, the parts cost of full frame only makes up around $2-300 of the difference in selling price of these full frame. A full frame Sensor costs around $300 or more, while a leading edge APS sensor costs well under $100 in volume. Move ahead 10 years, and an APS sensor might cost $25-40, but a full frame sensor is STILL going to cost around $200, and the economics of the Semiconductor industry won't allow that to change fundamentally.

So, even 10 years from now, a full frame DSLR will still cost $1000 more than a comparable APS DSLR. And there is not a damn thing that can change that fact. Moore's Law does not apply to Sensors, because they cannot get physically smaller over time. The support electronics can, but the support electronics are becoming a diminishingly small portion of the die in a CMOS sensor.

Note: I spent over a decade working for a Semiconductor company that made, among other things, CMOS imaging sensors. So I know what I'm talking about as far as the underlying costs and process economics involved with making these sensors.